Climate Change Modeling

What is the current distribution of cacao in Peru?

Our scientists understood that modeling the current distribution and climate conditions of cultivated and native cacao in Peru was crucial to the success of the FFC project. These maps are the results of this effort; they show the current distribution of cultivated cacao (black) in dryer areas (yellow) and native cacao (red) in wetter (green) areas. Want the whole story? 

What does the future of cacao in Peru look like?

Next, our researchers applied internationally developed climate models to understand the potential distributions of cacao given future climatic conditions. These maps indicate the fate of cultivated cacao distribution given 75% agreement amongst the climate models under “business as usual” conditions (left) and satisfaction of the Paris Climate Agreement (right). Predictions like these helped our researchers select genotypes for the genetic resource management component of the FFC project. Want the whole story?